PGA tour players to follow for 2018
PGA tour players to follow for 2018
Published on:
Six to Follow for 2018 and Some Thoughts on Comeback Player of the Year
For my first blog piece I thought I would take a look at 6 players on the PGA tour who I think will have a really positive year in 2018 and who I think it will pay to ‘keep on side’ at the right time. These players are a mix of rookies and more established players with the only link being that I think they will all have a year where they make a significant impact on the tour and either move on to the next level in their career, or, in the case of one, return to the winners circle after a blank year. I have also looked to highlight some specific events which I think these players could produce the goods in.
In addition to my 6 to follow I have also had a look at who I think will be ‘Comeback Player of The Year’…and I haven’t gone for the obvious here!
So in no particular order other than alphabetical here we go.
1 – Patrick Cantlay
Cantlay is the most obvious pick of the 6 and as anyone who follows the PGA tour will know as long as he stays healthy he is destined for massive things.
In 2011 Cantlay was No 1 amateur in the world and was considered in a lot of quarters a better prospect than Jordan Spieth. He finished 21st in the 2011 US Open and then played 4 more PGA tour events that year as an amateur, finishing top 25 in all of them. This included shooting a round of 60 at the Travelers the week after the US Open.
In 2012 he turned pro but then his career was derailed shortly after with a stress fracture in his back. Over the next 3-4yrs he tried to come back on a few occasions but each time the pain flared up again. Then early in 2016 personal tragedy struck when his best friend and Caddie Chris Roth was killed in a hit and run accident in front of his eyes.
Finally early in 2017 Cantlay felt ready both physically and mentally to come back to the tour and the results since then have been nothing short of stellar. In 15 events played he has missed no cuts and he has accrued 4 top 10s and a win at his most recent start at the Shriners, meaning he has now climbed in to the world’s top 50.
Cantlay has managed his schedule cautiously since his return not playing two weeks running until playing 4 weeks out of 5 in the Play Off’s and the one slight concern still has to be around his back. However if he can now stay healthy he looks set to push on to the career which was initially expected for him.
Events Most Likely To.....
Cantlay is one of those rare players who has no obvious weakness to his game with all his 2017 stats being solid. It’s therefore hard to pick particular events or a style of event his game is more suited to as to put it bluntly he’s liable to play well anywhere.
I can see him winning a couple of times in 2018 and whilst I wouldn’t put you off backing him in any event I would suggest backing him in WGC’s where, due to the nature of the field, his price will still be a bit more juicy and I feel he is more than capable of getting a win in top company. Similarly I could see him going well in the US Open & US PGA at an attractive price.
UPDATED 9th DECEMBER 2018
WHAT I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF ")!*...."I can see him winning a couple of times in 2018 and whilst I wouldn’t put you off backing him in any event I would suggest backing him in WGC’s where, due to the nature of the field, his price will still be a bit more juicy and I feel he is more than capable of getting a win in top company. Similarly I could see him going well in the US Open & US PGA at an attractive price."
What Happened...It was a really solid year for Patrick, which saw him again make the Tour Championship. He made 23 starts through the year notching four top 6 finishes however he was winless and his best finish was a 2nd place at the Shriners in the fall.
He notched a T6th in the WGC Bridgestone & a tied 7th in the WGC Champions, however he failed to make a serious imp\act in the majors.
If you had placed 1pt e/w on Patrick in every start he made this year you would have staked 46pts & based on his SP, using 1/5 odds 1st 6 for e/w purposes, you would have returned 31.13 pts.
Based on this I am giving myself an E for my predictions with Cantlay this year.
2 – Beau Hossler
It seems with each passing week another ‘young gun’ is making there breakthrough on the PGA Tour and 2017 was certainly the year of the ‘20 Somethings’ and Hossler’s name is one that has been on the radar of PGA tour followers for a little while now to eventually join this ever growing list.
In 2012 Hossler qualified for the US Open as a teenage amateur and actually led during the 2nd round before finishing 29th.
After turning pro in 2016 Hossler begun 2017 with no status on any tour and after failing to make much impact on the PGA tour through sponsors exemptions he headed to the Web.com tour in the summer and managed to make enough money in 11 starts to earn his full PGA card. Since then in the Fall events he has carried on from where he left off making the cut in all 5 events he played in and posting two top 10s.
Events Most Likely To....
Buoyed by his start to the 17-18 season I would expect Beau to come out of the blocks pretty quickly in 2018 and as a native Californian I can see him playing well in some early West Coast events. Beau topped the 2017 Web.com tour putting stats and the 2 events he finished 2nd in on the Web.com last season were both low scoring affairs. I would therefore look for him to go well in the 3 week stretch from the Career Builder, through the Waste Management and the AT & T.
UPDATED 9th DECEMBER
WHAT I SAID AT THE BEGININNG OF 2018... "Buoyed by his start to the 17-18 season I would expect Beau to come out of the blocks pretty quickly in 2018 and as a native Californian I can see him playing well in some early West Coast events. Beau topped the 2017 Web.com tour putting stats and the 2 events he finished 2nd in on the Web.com last season were both low scoring affairs. I would therefore look for him to go well in the 3 week stretch from the Career Builder, through the Waste Management and the AT & T."
WHAT HAPPENED.....Beau failed to make a big iimpact in the events I highlighted however he came good early in April when we were on board at 150-1 at the Houston Open to finish 2nd. Sadly due to the heroics of Ian Poulter he was unable to land the 1st place coup for us however it was still a nice e/w return. In addition Beau managed a 2nd place at the Travelers and a T6th at the Quicken Loans.
Beau made 28 starts over the year meaning 1pt e/w on every start would have seen you stake 56 points. Based on 1/5 odds 1st 6 you would have returned 56.3pts!
Based on this I am going to give myself a C for my predictions with Beau this year.
3 – Stephan Jaeger
One of the main things I tend to look for when siding with a rookie straight of the Web.com tour is there ability to actually win and this guy has certainly proven he has that in spades, winning twice in a 3 event stretch in May and June last season.
Surprisingly though that isn’t Jaeger’s main claim to fame. Instead that would go down to shooting a 58 in round 1 of the 2016 Ellie Mae classic on the Web.com, an event he went on to win with a score of -30! Clearly therefore Mr Jaeger knows how to go low!
What is also clear looking at when his wins came is that he can find his form at anytime, as prior to his two wins in 3 weeks he’d missed his previous 2 cuts and had a best placed finish of 16th all season. Similarly prior to shooting his 58 and his win in 2016 he had form figures reading 32 MC 20 30 56 in his previous 5 events. Therefore the lesson is if you think the course may suit him don’t be put off by his recent form.
Events Most Likely To....
Clearly we need to keep an eye on Stephan in events that are considered ‘birdie fests’ and I would consider the John Deere Classic when most of the ‘big guns’ are absent in preparation for the British Open an ideal chance for him. In addition it’s worth noting that one of his wins in 2017 came in a Pro Am event so he could well be worth keeping an eye on for the Career Builder & the AT & T on the West Coast.
Furthermore the German worked his way on to the US Pro Golf circuit after studying at the University of Tennessee so the Fedex St Jude is bound to be an event high on his radar and with this being played the week before the US Open and prone to some shock results over the years he could well pop up in the frame here at a big price. Another fact that could bode well for this is that both of his wins in 2017 came at a very similar time of year to when the Fedex St Jude is played.
Finally I’m a great believer in the theory that players take inspiration from results achieved by other players they have a connection to or see themselves having some kind of affinity with, therefore if fellow German Martin Kaymer rediscovers past glories and achieves any notable wins this season in a Major or WGC don’t be surprised if Jaeger pops up shortly afterwards with a big finish.
UPDATED 9th DECEMBER 2018
WHAT I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF 2018...Clearly we need to keep an eye on Stephan in events that are considered ‘birdie fests’ and I would consider the John Deere Classic when most of the ‘big guns’ are absent in preparation for the British Open an ideal chance for him. In addition it’s worth noting that one of his wins in 2017 came in a Pro Am event so he could well be worth keeping an eye on for the Career Builder & the AT & T on the West Coast.
Furthermore the German worked his way on to the US Pro Golf circuit after studying at the University of Tennessee so the Fedex St Jude is bound to be an event high on his radar and with this being played the week before the US Open and prone to some shock results over the years he could well pop up in the frame here at a big price. Another fact that could bode well for this is that both of his wins in 2017 came at a very similar time of year to when the Fedex St Jude is played.
Finally I’m a great believer in the theory that players take inspiration from results achieved by other players they have a connection to or see themselves having some kind of affinity with, therefore if fellow German Martin Kaymer rediscovers past glories and achieves any notable wins this season in a Major or WGC don’t be surprised if Jaeger pops up shortly afterwards with a big finish.
WHAT HAPPENED - Stephan failed unfortunately to deliver through the year which resulted in him having to go back to the Web.com finals to regain his card. His best place finish on the PGA Tour this year was a 13th at the Quicken Loans and he never threatened to make the frame. He did drop down to the Web.com tour earlier in the year and notch a win, however this didn't help us.
Stephan made 29 starts over the year meaning 1pt e/w in each start would have been 58pts staked. His return for us was zilch!!
Based on this I am giving myself an F for fail with my predictions on Stephan this year.
4 – C T Pan
I mentioned CT as a man to keep an eye on at the beginning of 2017 and whilst he didn’t exactly pull up any trees in his rookie year he finished a respectable 88th in the Fedex Cup, comfortably keeping his card, with his most notable performance coming in the Farmers Ins Open at Torrey Pines with a 2nd place finish.
Since July 2017 CT has found a solid if unspectacular groove on tour making 9 cuts out of 10 and I can see him pushing on this year.
What attracted me to him as a man to keep an eye on this time last year was his very solid all round stats from 2016 on the Web.com tour and compared to this CT’s stats in 2017 and in particular his putting were actually fairly poor, which makes his overall Fedex Cup finish all the more impressive.
However with a years worth of course experience now under his belt if this former world amateur No 1 can rediscover his solid all round game I can see a good sophomore year ahead for him.
Events Most Likely To....
CT won twice on the PGA Tour of Canada in 2015 and he finished 14th in the RBC Canadian Open in 2017 so clearly enjoys his golf in Canada. Look out for him in the 2018 RBC Canadian Open.
Like many up and coming golfers CT was given a start by the Travelers in 2015 and finished a respectable 25th. CT then returned to River Highlands in 2017 and finished 8th so this is definitely an event to watch out for him in.
Finally it would be foolish not keep an eye out for CT when the tour returns to Torrey for the Farmers Ins Open early in the year as clearly the tough nature of the test there suited his ‘no frills’ all round game.
UPDATED 9th DECEMBER - 2018
WHAT I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF 2018 - CT won twice on the PGA Tour of Canada in 2015 and he finished 14th in the RBC Canadian Open in 2017 so clearly enjoys his golf in Canada. Look out for him in the 2018 RBC Canadian Open.
Like many up and coming golfers CT was given a start by the Travelers in 2015 and finished a respectable 25th. CT then returned to River Highlands in 2017 and finished 8th so this is definitely an event to watch out for him in.
Finally it would be foolish not keep an eye out for CT when the tour returns to Torrey for the Farmers Ins Open early in the year as clearly the tough nature of the test there suited his ‘no frills’ all round game.
WHAT HAPPENED - CT struggled for the first part of the year to make a serious impact however anyone keeping faith with him would have been rewarded over a short stretch towards the end of the 17/18 season when he finished 2nd at the Wyndham and 4th a few weeks later at the Dell at 60-1 & 175-1 respectively.
CT made 29 starts over the year meaning 58pts staked at 1pt e/w, with the return being 49pts.
Based on this I'm giving myself a D for my predictions with CT This year.
5 - Patrick Reed
Following Patrick would have proved to be an expensive hobby in 2017 as time and again towards the end of the season he got himself in to the mix only to throw in one really bad round.
After a slow start to the year he found his game from April/May onwards enough to take care of business with regards to Presidents Cup qualification and as the US’ version of Ian Poulter he’ll be desperate to make a fast start to 2018 so there are no such concerns regarding his place in the Ryder Cup team.
Reed is a proven winner so he will be as frustrated as anyone with his first winless year in 5 and I can see him putting this right early in the year.
Events Most Likely To....
Patrick has shown a liking for Bermuda greens with most of his wins coming on this surface and I can see him having a good Florida swing. In particular I would highlight the Valspar Championship where he has played well before.
Moving on from this whether it’s because the scent of team golf is in the air or whether it’s simply because he has the ability to raise his game when it matters Reed seems to regularly save some good golf for the Play Offs so watch out for him at this time of year.
Finally of course, assuming he makes the team, he is a man to have onside for matches and top scorer bets at the Ryder Cup.
UPDATED 9th DECEMBER 2018
WHAT I SAID AT THE BEGINNING OF 2018- After a slow start to the year he found his game from April/May onwards enough to take care of business with regards to Presidents Cup qualification and as the US’ version of Ian Poulter he’ll be desperate to make a fast start to 2018 so there are no such concerns regarding his place in the Ryder Cup team.
Reed is a proven winner so he will be as frustrated as anyone with his first winless year in 5 and I can see him putting this right early in the year.
Patrick has shown a liking for Bermuda greens with most of his wins coming on this surface and I can see him having a good Florida swing. In particular I would highlight the Valspar Championship where he has played well before.
WHAT HAPPENED - After a slow start to the year Patrick sprung to life at the Valspar with he 2nd place finish. He then backed it up with a 7th place at the API the following week. After this of course he memorably lifted his first major trophy at Augusta. Patrick notched a further high major finish at the US Open when coming 4th however beyond this the remainder ogf his PGA Tour year was relatively disappointing with no further top 5s to his name.
Patrick made 24 starts on the PGA Tour in 2018 meaning 48pts staked. Based on a 1pt e/w bet on each of these starts the return would have been 92 points.
Based on this I am giving myself an A+ for my predictions with Reed this year!
6 – Cameron Smith
The 24yr old Australian made an immediate impact on the PGA Tour when he finished in a tie for 5th in his first tour start at the 2014 CIMB Classic. He then went on to finish 15th at the RBC Heritage in 2015 and not long after followed this up with a cracking tie for 4th at the US Open.
In his first full year on tour in 2016 Cameron struggled though and needed to produce a big finish at the Web.com finals to regain his card for 2017.
Early in 2017 he then made a breakthrough in winning the newly implemented pairs event at the Zurich Classic alongside Jonas Blixt and this earned him a 2yr exemption on the tour through 2019.
The remainder of the 2017 PGA season was fairly disappointing from Cam with a string of missed cuts alongside a 7th place finish at the Wyndham and a 12th at the BMW being his best returns, however he came flying out of the blocks for the new 2017-18 season with two top 5 finishes in two events and then followed this up with a breakthrough win in his homeland at the Australian PGA.
Moving forward I would now expect Cameron to take the confidence he has gained from his finish to 2017 and turn this in to his best year on the PGA tour so far in 2018 and achieve his first individual tour win.
Events Most Likely To....
As a native Queenslander brought up in the coastal city of Brisbane it’s no surprise that Cam’s best results on US soil have tended to come on links type courses such as Hilton Head & Pebble Beach. In addition his 4th place finish at the US Open came at Chambers Bay, another links style course. Therefore assuming he doesn’t completely switch off during the ‘off season’, I can see Cameron continuing to ride the crest of the wave he is currently on and getting off to a flyer at the Sony Open in January on another course which really should suit his game.
Moving forward I would then watch out for him at the AT & T at Pebble Beach and the Heritage at Hilton Head. Whilst I’m not necessarily saying it will be this year I can also see him being another Aussie who’s game will transfer well to the British Open in years to come.
Finally I would expect Cam to play well again in the two Asia based events, the CIMB Classic and the CJ Cup at the start of the 2018 season.
UPDATED DECEMBER 9th 2018
WHAT I SAID...As a native Queenslander brought up in the coastal city of Brisbane it’s no surprise that Cam’s best results on US soil have tended to come on links type courses such as Hilton Head & Pebble Beach. In addition his 4th place finish at the US Open came at Chambers Bay, another links style course. Therefore assuming he doesn’t completely switch off during the ‘off season’, I can see Cameron continuing to ride the crest of the wave he is currently on and getting off to a flyer at the Sony Open in January on another course which really should suit his game.
Moving forward I would then watch out for him at the AT & T at Pebble Beach and the Heritage at Hilton Head. Whilst I’m not necessarily saying it will be this year I can also see him being another Aussie who’s game will transfer well to the British Open in years to come.
Finally I would expect Cam to play well again in the two Asia based events, the CIMB Classic and the CJ Cup at the start of the 2018 season.
WHAT HAPPENED - Whilst Cam failed to win in 2018 on the PGA TOUR he had a great year, which resulted in him notching four top 6 finishes including a T5th at the Masters. Unfortunately for us the Aussie failed to deliver in the events I had earmarked for him but then popped up at big prices in others!
Cam made 25 starts on the PGA Tour through 2018 meaning 1pt e/w in each event would have lead to 50pts staked with a return of of 88.66pts based on 1pt e/w @ 1/5 1st 6.
Based on this I am giving myself an A for having Cam as one of our 6 to follow.
2018 SIX TO FOLLOW SUMMARY
Of the six players picked a strategy of following them blindly all year would have lead to a very nice profit on two of them [Reed & Smith], a break even on one [Hossler], smaller losses on two [Cantlay & Pan] & a big disaster on Jaeger!
All in all if you had placed one point on each player on each of their PGA Tour starts this year you would have staked 302pts whilst you would have returned a total 319.76pts.
I have based these return numbers on e/w terms of 1/5 odds 1st 6 [meaning any 7th place finishes which can bring an e/w return have not been included]
As a result I am awarding myself a C+ for the year on these predictions overall with the accompanying comment that used to grace all my school reports "Could do better!"
Comeback Player of the Year - Hunter Mahan
This is a category that takes on an extra twist this year in that a certain Mr Woods is a live candidate.
I have made my thoughts on Tiger’s comeback known on twitter over the recent weeks but to recap whilst a fit, healthy, competitive Tiger going up against the likes of Spieth, JT, Rory and DJ would be a fantastic sight to see I am not convinced we are anywhere near to seeing that yet, or if unfortunately we ever will.
With the amount his body has gone through over the recent years In my eyes a hugely successful 2018 for Tiger would be to simply play through the year without injury and to throw in a few high finishes so as to make maybe the 2nd or even 3rd Fedex Cup Play Off event. Anything beyond this in 2018 would be absolute gravy and I just don’t see it happening this year. I would of course though be delighted to be proved wrong.
Other candidates for this category include Nick Watney, Harris English, Aaron Baddeley or even Gmac, however I have plumped for Hunter Mahan.
Hunter was as high as No 4 in the world in 2012 and made 7 consecutive US Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup teams, however since he achieved his 6th PGA tour title at the 2014 Barclays his game has completely fallen of the radar.
There have been many reasons speculated on for the 35 year olds game collapsing and ultimately the margins between success and failure in this sport are so narrow you can see how it doesn’t take much for a mini slump to turn in to a crisis of confidence, which then in turn leads to a breakdown in your technique and so on. After all if you think about it the difference between finishing top 10 every week or missing the cut every week is literally one bad swing and two missed putts a round!
In Hunter’s case though if we are to believe what we read it would appear that the hectic, all be it enjoyable lifestyle of bringing up a young family, lead to him taking his eye off the ball with regards to his golf game and the rest went from there.
In an attempt to resurrect his career Hunter changed coaches in the fall of 2016 from instructor Sean Foley to Chris O’Connell the long time coach of Matt Kuchar.
Whilst implementing the swing changes advocated by O’Connell Mahan missed his first 5 cuts of 2017. Things didn’t improve much in the 2nd half of 2017 either, however in the last few weeks of the PGA golfing year there have been some signs that the work he has put in is beginning to bear fruit.
Firstly he finished 16th at the Wyndham Championship opening with two rounds of 65 before following this up at the first Web.com finals event with a 13th place.
Unfortunately the pressures of trying to keep his PGA card through the Web.com finals then got to Hunter with 3 disappointing events, however he then bounced back with 13th & 18th placed finishes in the first 2 PGA tour events of the 2017-18 season.
Hunter will now begin 2018 looking to regain his full card through starts he will get on a Past Champions status along with sponsors exemptions, and with the swing changes he has made hopefully now fully embedded I can see this focusing his mind for a resurrection in his career and he is my pick for comeback player of 2018.
So there we have it, 6 players I expect good improvements and good things from in 2018 and 1 player who I expect to hit the comeback trail. Thoughts Welcome!