The Masters

The Masters

It was a poor week for us at The Valero Texas Open with three of our selections missing the cut and the remaining three never getting seriously in to the mix. Ryan Moore did continue his really solid recent play over the first couple of days, but after he lost his way on the back nine on Saturday our race was basically run.

The event in the end was won by Akshay Bhatia who having opened up with a 9- under 63 on Thursday looked like he was going to cruise to a wire to wire victory. Golf being golf though nothing is ever that simple and after his nearest challenger Denny McCarthy produced a blistering seven straight birdies to close on Sunday, Akshay saw the six shot lead he had held at the turn evaporate and he found himself in a play-off.

Golf again being golf though after his herculean effort on the back nine Denny then went and chunked a wedge from 80yds in to the water on the first play off hole to hand the win to Akshay. So a second tour title to Bhatia, however unlike the first, which came in an opposite field event, this one earned him the final golden ticket to Augusta.

Talking of, which… we move on and what a week it promises to be as we head in to one of the most eagerly anticipated weeks of the year in the golfing calendar, Masters week.

As always the course will be looking resplendent with the Azaleas in full spring bloom and the greens perfectly manicured.

Regular PGA Tour golf watchers will also be able to relax and enjoy the golf knowing that no ‘patron’ will dare shout “Mashed Potato” or “Bababooey” as Bryson launches one off the 13^th tee [as if they do they will be very quickly evicted from the premises and never allowed to return].

In addition seasoned golf watchers can enjoy our annual game of ‘golf commentator cliché bingo’. Yes you know the ones, “No winner of the Par 3 competition has ever gone on to win the Masters”, “It’s like putting down a marble staircase” and of course the classic “The Masters doesn’t start till the back nine on Sunday”, [which needless to say is complete and utter nonsense!]

The spectacle and history we will be presented with this week are of course matched by the cast and storylines we have coming in.

Will Scottie Scheffler continue his recent dominance? Will it finally be time for Rory to put it all together at Augusta and complete the Grand Slam? Can Jon Rahm, Brooks Koepka or one of the other LIV golfers pounce, or Can Cantlay, Schauffele or Hovland make their Major breakthrough?

Then of course we have Tiger. Will his body hold up to the exertions and if so can he use his huge experience here to stick around here for all four days? Anything beyond that is surely beyond the wildest of dreams!

The betting market as one would expect is dominated by Scottie Scheffler who is a best priced 4/1 as I type. Scheffler is then followed by Rory McIlroy who just edge Jon Rahm for second spot in the market. This trio are then followed by Brooks Koepka, Xander Schauffele and the in form Hideki Matsuyama.

COURSE

Augusta National is a Par 72 which last year after some tinkering will officially played to 7510with 30yds or so added.

A couple of years ago changes were made to the 11^th and 15^th. Eleven had 15 yards added and some trees removed on the right hand side of the fairway. The aim was to stop players simply bailing out right off the tee while still having a decent look at their second shot in as errant tee shots became faced with additional faster running landing areas, with players blocked out for their second shot behind the trees further down the right hand side.

Meanwhile the par five 15^th hole had 20yds added meaning players have to put a bit more thought in to their second shots with regards to carrying the water.

Last year then saw some further changes made with the lengthening of the par five 13^th hole the change, which has garnered the most publicity. The tweak here has saw a new tee box installed adding a potential 35yds in length. The result being a bit like the change to the 15^th last year that the ‘risk v the reward’ of going for it in two will become greater.

Finally this year has seen some further tweaks with the second hole having a new tee box added, which will add a further 10yds to the hole if used.

As a result of this latest change we are now looking at a course, which can play to 7555yds.

The course was designed by Alister MacKenzie and Bobby Jones and was opened for play in 1933 before undergoing a redesign in 2008.

The greens are Bentgrass and tend to run at 13+ on the stimpmeter.

The key to success at Augusta is twofold. Firstly, you have to take advantage of the four Par 5’s, particularly, even with their greater length, the 13th and 15^th and secondly you have to minimise your mistakes on the par 4’s. Strong iron play is imperative to find the right spots on the greens.

Find yourself on the wrong level on green and it can be almost impossible to get down in two and make par.

 HISTORY

So let’s take a look at the last ten winners.

2023 Jon Rahm

2022 Scottie Scheffler

2021 Hideki Matsuyama

2020 Dustin Johnson [played in November conditions].

2019 Tiger Woods

2018 Patrick Reed

2017 Sergio Garcia

2016 Danny Willett

2015 Jordan Spieth

2014 Bubba Watson

2013 Adam Scott

So what does this tell us? Well interestingly and perhaps unexpectedly players right at the top of the market have as a rule had a poor record here over recent years with regards to winning with the champion tending to come from that ‘just below the leading pack’ section. For example 2022 winner Hideki Matsuyama was a 45/1 chance while the 2018 winner Patrick Reed was a 50/1 shot, Sergio was a 40/1+ shot whilst the previous year Danny Willett was a 66-1 shot.

The 2019, 2020 and 2022 winners did somewhat buck this trend though as in 2019 Tiger Woods arrived here as a 16-1 shot while Dustin Johnson went off as a 9/1 November 2020 with Bryson Dechambeau marginally pipping him to favouritism. 2022 Champion Scheffler was of course a well fancied 16/1 shot, while Rahm was went off very well fancied at 9/1 last year but none were favourites.

Seven of the last ten winners had already won an event that calendar year with Matsuyama, Woods and Reed the most recent not to have done so.

As we know some experience of the course here is vital with no rookie having won here for many, many years with Fuzzy Zoeller way back in 1979 the most recent to manage that achievement.

There is recent precedent of winning here after just one start though with Willett, Spieth and Schwartzel all doing it over recent years.

It is important to note though that all of these three had finished inside the top 40 on their Masters debut the previous year, with Spieth finishing 2^nd the year before. In fact all of the last ten winners here had posted a previous top forty finish in the event.

As for recent form coming in to the event this historically can also be seen as quite key with eight of the last ten winners of April Masters having posted a top fifteen finish on Tour in March or April, while Dustin Johnson tee’d it up in November on the back of a run of 2 1 2 1 6 2! Surprisingly an exception to this was Jon Rahm last year who in his three starts in March had posted nothing better than 31^st. Of course though before cooling of in March the Spaniard had three wins and had not been outside of the top eight in his first seven starts of the year.

Meanwhile 2022 winner Scheffler gave us the most obvious recent April example of how ‘hot form’ is key as he triumphed here on the back of three wins and a seventh in his previous five starts!

Equally though it is not, if history is anything to go by, essential the winner arrives here in peak form and the 2021 champion Matsuyama who is the other odd one out alongside Rahm in this category with regards to a top 15 finish, had posted finishes of 30 42 MC 18 in his March and April tour starts. He did though finish 15^th at the WGC Concession in his previous start, which finished on the 28^th Feb!

Dustin Johnson also broke the hoodoo in 2020, which had seen none of the previous ten editions won by the player who had started the week as the number one ranked golfer in the world.

Looking at the winning score over the past ten years and if we put to one side Johnson’s 20- under total in softer November conditions, a week, which also saw Cameron Smith become the first player in Masters History to shoot all four rounds in the 60s, the lowest winning total since 2010 was posted by Jordan Spieth in 2015 on 18- under, while the highest was from Danny Willett on 5- under in 2016.

As you can see this spans quite a range with somewhere around 9- under to 14- under tending to be the mark with Rahm posting 12- under last year the previous two champions Matsuyama and Scheffler having both triumphed on a 10- under total.

WEATHER FORECAST

After a dry and pleasant build up in the early part of the week unfortunately the weather is showing the potential to throw a spanner in the works on Thursday with a heavy storm in the forecast as the day progresses. Hopefully though that doesn’t materialise. Beyond this and touch wood the remaining three days look dry so hopefully even if Thursday does get disrupted the smaller field will allow us to be back on track by Sunday.

Temperatures look set to sit in the high 70s for the early part of the week before hitting the low 80s over the weekend.

Wind also looks like it could play its part over the first two days in particular with higher winds of 20mph plus predicted in advance of the potentially storm on Thursday with similar breezy conditions forecast for Friday AM.

As I always so though this could all change!

PICKS

When considering the options this year the spectre of Scottie Scheffler looms large and there is no doubt he is far away the most likely winner of the event. Naturally though his odds reflect that and the decision therefore we have to grapple with is whether to go ‘all in’ on Scottie or to take him on. Ultimately then, while I would put no one off backing him at the odds in this spirit of this column, and considering we could get a weather based draw bias over the first couple of days I have decided to take him on and have gone with five players this week as follows;

XANDER SCHAUFFELE – 16/1 – 2.5pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 8th

I will start off this week with Xander Schauffele.

Schauffele has earned a reputation as a player who consistently produces the goods in the biggest of events but has been unable to get over the line and this was sadly something we witnessed again recently at Sawgrass where after heading in to Sunday in the box seat he was unable to close out the deal and got pipped as we know by Scottie Scheffler.

Having been on Xander that week then and having witnessed his demise first hand it is on paper tough to go back to him again, however the more I look at his credentials this week the more rock solid they seem as the viable each way alternative at the top of the market to Scottie Scheffler.

Firstly if we look at Xander’s play to date in 2024 and outside of Scheffler he is the most consistent player on the PGA Tour with six top tens in eight starts including that runner up finish at Sawgrass. From that point of view then, while he is yet to win this year he has the strong bank of recent form coming in to the week that most Masters Champions can boast.

Meanwhile if we look at his stats for 2024 to date he sits second from tee to green, sixth off the tee, 18^th in approach play and ninth around the greens, so he is thriving in all the areas key for this week.

Furthermore if we look at the Californian’s scoring averages he sits second in par four scoring on tour, an area hugely important here and 17^th in the par five scoring averages.

If we then look at Schauffele’s Major record he now has ten top ten finishes in Majors since the start of 2018, very impressive indeed. In addition his Masters record boasts two top three finishes in six starts.

I am convinced that Xander will get over the line in due course in one of the games big four events and having now turned 30 and in to his prime years this could just be the year he does so.

TONY FINAU – 40/1 – 1.5pts e/w - 1/5 odds 1st 10 - FINISHED 55th

Next up in a team where the majority of my selections are coming from that second tier of the market I will side with Tony Finau.

As was well documented Finau went five years from landing his first PGA Tour title in Puerto Rico before finally getting over the line for the second time at the Northern Trust in 2021.

During that winless period though Tony showed a penchant for producing in the big events bagging eight top tens in the Majors over those five years.

Since that second win in 2021 though Tony has clearly found the key to getting over the line as he has gone on to bag four further trophies in the past two years. Conversely though his form in the Majors has tailed off during that period as he has failed to bag a top 20 in the past two seasons.

Heading in to this years Major season then and you would have to believe that Finau will be very much focussing on the big four events and there are plenty of pointers to make me believe he can produce a really big performance this week.

Firstly if we look at Tony’s form this year and while 2024 has been patchy as a whole he produced his best result of the campaign to date last time out in Houston when finishing second on the defence of his trophy. Furthermore a look at his stats that week, and on a course, which certainly had a similarity to Augusta in its set up, Tony ranked first around the greens for the week while his long game was also really solid.

Secondly a look at Tony’s stats for the season as a whole show us that he ranks eighth in approach play, which as we know is key here.

From a course experience point of view we also have plenty of encouragement as he has three top tens here with a best of fifth, in his six previous visits.

Finau’s weak link as we know is very much on the greens but with Augusta’s fabled tough surfaces often proving a leveller we have seen plenty of players such as Garcia, Matsuyama and of course Scheffler, who struggle on the ‘dance floor’ triumph here, so I am not going to let that put me off Tony.

I’ll take my chances then that Tony can start to step up again in the biggest of events beginning with a big performance here this week.

SHANE LOWRY –  45/1 – 1.5pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 8 - FINISHED 43rd

Next up I shall return to another player we had on side at Sawgrass recently, Shane Lowry.

In a theme running through our selections this week The Irishman is another player who has been firing on all cylinders with his iron play this season as he currently ranks third in the approach play department. Furthermore of course we know he has the imagination and creativity required to thrive here around the greens.

Lowry started 2024 on the PGA Tour fairly sluggishly however he found his game when the tour hit Florida finishing fourth at the Cognizant and having backed that up with a third at the API and a solid 19^th at TPC he should arrive here in confident mood.

Meanwhile a closer inspection of Shane’s stats for the season show us that he is fifth in par four scoring thus giving us further encouragement.

Turning to Shane’s history at Augusta and after struggling in his early visits here he has shown really good promise on his last four trips down Magnolia Lane notching four straight top 25s including a best of third two years ago when we were onboard.

Lowry as we know is not a player who wins often but when he does win he wins big. It is certainly not hard then to envisage him adding a Green Jacket to his Claret Jug and I am keen to side with him this week.

SAHITH THEEGALA – 40/1 – 1.5pts e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED 45th

Next up I shall turn to a player who looks to have the perfect game for Augusta. Sahith Theegala.

Theegala has shown us on his short time on tour that he is the man for the big occasion and having now bagged his first tour title it seems only a matter of time until he wins again.

2024 has seen Sahith so far post a runner up at the Sentry where he closed with as 63, finish fifth in Phoenix, sixth at the API and notch a top ten at Sawgrass so as well as turning up for the big events he certainly has the strong form coming in we are looking for.

Meanwhile the youngster currently sits 11^th on tour in putting and has positive stats in all key areas other than around the green. That last stat is I admit slightly worrying for this week, that said anyone who watches Theegala regularly will know that he possesses the kind of midas touch to produce the spectacular around the greens so often needed here.

I mentioned earlier that Theegala looks to have the perfect game for Augusta and of course we saw a glimpse of this when he finished ninth on debut last year. In addition to this though I am drawn to a comparison I have made previously with Sahith and that is to Bubba Watson, as Theegala is very much a shot maker in the two time Masters Champion’s mould.

I referenced this when siding with Theegala at the Travelers in 2022 and having also finished sixth at Riviera last season we have further evidence of a comparison with Watson on a strongly correlating course.

Experience as we know is as a rule key at Augusta however we have had both Jordan Spieth and Danny Willett win here on just their second visit over more recent years and I am keen to side with Theegala to follow in their footsteps.

NICK TAYLOR – 175/1 – 1pt e/w – 1/5 odds 1^st 10 - FINISHED MC

Finally I shall round things off with a speculative play on Nick Taylor at big odds.

A former world number one amateur Taylor has taken his time to make his way to the upper echelons of the game, however with four PGA Tour titles including two big time wins over the past twelve months he is now clearly capable of competing at the highest of levels.

The Canadian’s biggest moment to date came last summer when he bagged his home open title seeing off Tommy Fleetwood when holing an absolute bomb on the 18^th green sparking jubilant scenes.

Following that win Nick hasn’t rested on his laurels though and earlier this year he saw of Charley Hoffman to bag the title in Phoenix, by birdieing the 18^th hole three times on the spin, once to make the play off and then twice more in extra holes.

A hugely gritty character then and one to trust under pressure Nick arrives here with 2024 stats, which have him 14^th in approach play and 15^th in putting, so you would expect him to be suited to Augusta. What’s more in his one previous trip here he posted a solid 29^th place in the damp autumnal conditions of 2020 and you would expect the firmer conditions he will face this week to be more to his liking.

A win for Taylor would seem somewhat far fetched but he is the type of character I would not expect to wilt in the heat of the battle and I am happy to chance him at the odds.

UPDATED 10th APRIL

FIRST ROUND LEADER - SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER - 12/1 - 2pts E/W - 1/5 odds 1st 6 - FULL PLACE RETURN & JASON DAY 55/1 - 1pt E/W 1/5 odds 1st 6. - NO RETURN

With so much uncertainty around Thursday's weather forecast I shall take one from the AM and one from the PM wave in the first round leader market starting with Scottie Scheffler who tees off at 10.42 AM.

The world number one as we know is as warm a favourite to land the Green Jacket as we have seen since the days of peak Tiger, however we shied away from him in the outright market due to his prohibitive odds.

History tells us though that whoever will triumph this week will start quickly with eight of the past ten winners sitting in the top four after day one, with Scottie himself sat third after the opening round in 2022.

Add this to the fact that the Texan sits third in round one scoring on tour then this seems a great way to get him onside at far more reasonable each way odds.

Alongside Scottie I will chance Jason Day who sets out at 1.24PM Local time.

Day sat fourth after round one last year when we were onboard and at 16th in round one scoring this year he is still making the most of his Thursdays.

The Aussie returned to the winners circle last year not long after the Masters and while he has not added another trophy to his cabinet since he has produced some steady golf in 2024.

Two of his last four starts have seen him open with a 65 at Riviera and a 67 at Sawgrass and I can see him starting well again here at a course he knows well and loves.